How to manage threats from above and below
With geopolitical tensions running high, the Baltic Sea has become a potential conflict zone. So, what are some of the main threat scenarios? Here, respected maritime security expert Dr Sebastian Bruns from the Center for Maritime Strategy and Security at Germany’s Kiel University shares his views.
The Baltic Sea has a long history of trade, collaboration – and, unfortunately, conflict. Over the centuries, international tensions have many times led to large scale battles being fought on and around the sea. And according to maritime security expert Dr Sebastian Bruns, the Baltic Sea could now be on the verge of hosting a conflict yet again.
Speaking as part of Saab’s Shielding the Baltic Sea film series, Dr Bruns warns international collaboration is needed to keep the Baltic safe and to ensure that the nations around it can continue to enjoy a peaceful existence.
“We have to understand that the Baltic Sea is back as an operating theatre and as a place where conflict happens,” he says. But it’s also an area where cooperation happens. It is the northern flank in the defence of Europe.”
“We have to understand that the Baltic Sea is back as an operating theatre and as a place where conflict happens,”
Under the surface
Dr Bruns says one key point of vulnerability for the Baltic Sea is under its surface. On its murky bottom, communications cables and energy infrastructure are attractive targets for saboteurs looking to disrupt life in the communities around the sea. Unfortunately, it’s a threat that is sometimes underestimated.
“The underwater domain has the issue that it’s invisible, certainly to most policymakers…,” says Dr Bruns. “They will invest in armies and air forces and sometimes their navies. And within the navy they have to make a decision, too, between surface and undersea capabilities. And that is a challenge because money can only be spent once.”
Dr Bruns expects a much more intense focus on undersea activities in coming years with submarines and uncrewed undersea drones playing a key role in situational awareness.
In the air
Another area of threat is the air domain over the Baltic Sea. Dr Bruns says the sea is relatively narrow, meaning nations need to have fast reaction times to airborne threats from across it.
“When you want to cross the Baltic Sea airspace, whether it's a drone, an aircraft, or some other missile … there is not a lot of reaction time. Planners have to account for that.”
Dr Bruns says effective defence for the Baltic Sea involves considering the potential threats across all domains.
“We have to think about conflicts in a 360 degree environment, various domains interacting with one another,” he says. “And we have to make sure that we have full operational capabilities as well as full operational pictures to deter and to defend in these multiple domains.”
“We have to think about conflicts in a 360 degree environment, various domains interacting with one another,”
Want to learn more? Our Shielding the Baltic Sea film series looks at the security challenges facing the Baltic as well as some of the advanced technological solutions that are helping to address them. Watch it here.